Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
